Deep intra‐island divergence of a montane forest endemic: phylogeography of the Puerto Rican frog Eleutherodactylus portoricensis (Anura: Eleutherodactylidae)

Aim Hypotheses proposed for lineage diversification of tropical montane species have rarely been tested within oceanic islands. Our goal was to understand how basin barriers and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations shaped the distribution of diversity in Eleutherodactylus portoricensis (Eleutherodactylidae), a frog endemic to the montane rain forests of Puerto Rico. Location The north‐eastern (Luquillo) and south‐eastern (Cayey) mountains of Puerto Rico. Methods We generated mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences (c. 565 bp) from 144 individuals of E. portoricensis representing 16 localities, and sequenced 646 bp of cytochrome b and 596 bp of nuclear DNA (nDNA) rhodopsin exon and intron 1 from a subset of individuals. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis on the mtDNA sequence data and explored population substructure with maximum parsimony networks, a spatial analysis of molecular variance, and pairwise F_ST analysis. Coalescent simulations were performed to test alternative models of population divergence in response to late Pleistocene interglacial periods. Historical demography was assessed through coalescent analyses and Bayesian skyline plots. Results We found: (1) two highly divergent groups associated with the disjunct Luquillo and Cayey Mountains, respectively; (2) a shallow mtDNA genetic discontinuity across the La Plata Basin within the Cayey Mountains; (3) phylogeographic congruence between nDNA and mtDNA markers; (4) divergence dates for both mtDNA and nDNA pre‐dating the Holocene interglacial (c. 10 ka), and nDNA suggesting divergence in the penultimate interglacial (c. 245 ka); and (5) historical demographic stability in both lineages. Main conclusions The low‐elevation Caguas Basin is a long‐term barrier to gene flow between the two montane frog populations. Measures of genetic diversity for mtDNA were similar in both lineages, but lower nDNA diversity in the Luquillo Mountains lineage suggests infrequent dispersal between the two mountain ranges and colonization by a low‐diversity founder population. Population divergence began prior to the Holocene interglacial. Stable population sizes over time indicate a lack of demonstrable demographic response to climatic changes during the last glacial period. This study highlights the importance of topographic complexity in promoting within‐island vicariant speciation in the Greater Antilles, and indicates long‐term persistence and lineage diversification despite late Pleistocene climatic oscillations.     

Climate change and amphibian declines: is there a link?

Abstract. Global climates have been changing, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, throughout the evolutionary history of amphibians. Therefore, existing amphibian species have been derived from those that have survived major climatic disturbances. Although recent global climate change has resulted in warming in many regions, temperatures in some areas to date have not changed measurably, or have even cooled. Declines of some amphibian populations have been correlated with climate events, but demonstrations of direct causal relationships need further research. Data are available indicating some indirect effect of climate change on the initiation of breeding activities of some amphibians that occur earlier than in previous springs, but the costs and benefits of these changes are just beginning to be investigated. Climate may also play an indirect role in facilitating epidemics of infectious disease. Regardless of the role that climate changes may have played in past and current amphibian declines, future shifts in climate, should they prove as dramatic as predicted, will certainly pose challenges for surviving amphibian populations and for successful recovery efforts of species that have suffered declines.     

Drought mildly reduces plant dominance in a temperate prairie ecosystem across years

1. Shifts in dominance and species reordering can occur in response to global change. However, it is not clear how altered precipitation and disturbance regimes interact to affect species composition and dominance.
2. We explored community‐level diversity and compositional similarity responses, both across and within years, to a manipulated precipitation gradient and annual clipping in a mixed‐grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA. We imposed seven precipitation treatments (five water exclusion levels [?20%, ?40%, ?60%, ?80%, and ?100%], water addition [+50%], and control [0% change in precipitation]) year‐round from 2016 to 2018 using fixed interception shelters. These treatments were crossed with annual clipping to mimic hay harvest.
3. We found that community‐level responses were influenced by precipitation across time. For instance, plant evenness was enhanced by extreme drought treatments, while plant richness was marginally promoted under increased precipitation.
4. Clipping promoted species gain resulting in greater richness within each experimental year. Across years, clipping effects further reduced the precipitation effects on community‐level responses (richness and evenness) at both extreme drought and added precipitation treatments.
5. Synthesis: Our results highlight the importance of studying interactive drivers of change both within versus across time. For instance, clipping attenuated community‐level responses to a gradient in precipitation, suggesting that management could buffer community‐level responses to drought. However, precipitation effects were mild and likely to accentuate over time to produce further community change.

     

Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter‐model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km². While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 10⁴ km²), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 10⁴ km² and 77 ± 26 × 10⁴ km²). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.